Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 18.690387 21.638946 24.832549 28.539925 32.716265 37.266139 42.588598
2024-12-15 14.385679 18.545549 23.467650 29.679509 37.264228 46.175746 57.385813
2024-12-22 11.061386 15.690563 21.609100 29.631603 40.108489 53.200823 70.654873
2024-12-29 9.336914 14.377395 21.258873 31.156306 44.808391 62.729407 87.736194
2025-01-05 7.793295 12.943900 20.408880 31.730424 48.116589 70.563677 103.131827
2025-01-12 6.498359 11.590034 19.391744 31.812766 50.587327 77.300528 117.410455
2025-01-19 5.488363 10.468729 18.506251 31.886581 52.921989 83.885732 131.812087
2025-01-26 5.092922 10.277894 19.014355 34.100415 58.585266 95.621706 154.349434
2025-02-02 4.613836 9.846579 19.045276 35.504465 63.048716 105.808044 175.176990
2025-02-09 4.184533 9.424895 19.017611 36.768021 67.336076 115.944814 196.479145
2025-02-16 3.637513 8.674243 18.294534 36.727534 69.419391 122.695865 212.863092
2025-02-23 3.068802 7.770524 17.157041 35.798747 69.866663 126.777236 225.173233
2025-03-02 2.570934 6.936104 16.063480 34.875152 70.324218 131.047950 238.319044
2025-03-09 2.262449 6.467707 15.636224 35.168958 72.988771 139.216711 258.424922
2025-03-16 1.933379 5.879906 14.873632 34.709597 74.211515 144.970389 274.798019
2025-03-23 1.805538 5.767282 15.114937 36.294392 79.395482 157.952063 304.204328
2025-03-30 1.622540 5.469655 14.896700 36.885502 82.682955 167.707414 328.462864
2025-04-06 1.430119 5.101958 14.460887 36.954465 84.927115 175.674486 349.948139
2025-04-13 1.263159 4.767402 14.052227 37.028833 87.167953 183.736598 371.976631
2025-04-20 1.237768 4.855877 14.698998 39.542580 94.596527 201.913803 413.191771
2025-04-27 1.167572 4.788229 14.938843 41.136151 100.202497 216.900158 449.200475
2025-05-04 1.095292 4.697635 15.105753 42.570088 105.560979 231.670691 485.444380
2025-05-11 0.971290 4.400353 14.676144 42.523888 107.711503 240.287751 510.520730